Iran is preparing to destroy large part of the Internet, TV and Communication Satellites in the world.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — IRGC — just threatened to take out a couple of Satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The Effect of such an Act of Terrorism against the World would be DISASTROUS! Kessler Syndrome, Global Communications Breakdown, Economic Devastation and Scientific Setback would be but some of the Deleterious Effects on our Modern Lives.

Immediate and Irreversible Catastrophe

The catastrophic Effects of Iran destroying Satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) would be immediate, severe, and potentially irreversible. Such an Action would trigger a Cascade of Consequences that would impact Global Communications, Scientific Research, National Security, and the Future of Space Exploration for Generations.

Kessler Syndrome and Debris Cascade

The most immediate and dangerous Effect would be the initiation of Kessler Syndrome, a Chain Reaction of Collisions that creates an ever-expanding Cloud of Space Debris. When a Satellite is destroyed, it Fragments into thousands of Pieces, each traveling at orbital Velocities of approximately 17,500 mph. These Fragments then collide with other Satellites, creating even more Debris in a self-sustaining Cascade. This Process would render LEO “extremely low” for long-term Satellite Viability and could make certain Orbital Regions completely unusable. The Debris would spread between Altitudes of 300 and 1,000 Kilometers, potentially threatening all LEO Satellites, including the International Space Station. The Timeline for this Catastrophe is alarmingly short — Researchers have calculated that without Satellite Avoidance Maneuvers, a catastrophic Collision could occur in just 2.8 Days as of 2025, compared to 121 Days in 2018 before Megaconstellations became prevalent.

Global Communications Breakdown

The Impact on Global Communications would be devastating. While 90% of Global Internet Traffic flows through Subsea Cables, LEO Satellites provide critical Services for Tactical Military Communications and Rural Broadband. The Destruction of these Satellites would disrupt these Services, isolating Communities and compromising Military Operations. Navigation Systems would also be affected. Although GPS/GNSS Satellites operate in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), they are not immune to Debris Cascades. Losing Precision Timing from these Systems would crash Stock Markets and disrupt Power Grids worldwide. Earth Observation Capabilities would be severely compromised, blinding our Ability to monitor Natural Disasters, Volcanic Eruptions and other Environmental Phenomena.

Economic Devastation

The Economic Consequences would be staggering. The Commercial Space Industry, which has seen Tens of Billions in Investment over the past Decade, would face immediate Collapse. Insurance Premiums for LEO Launches would skyrocket, and Insurers might stop Underwriting Collision Risk altogether, effectively ending the Commercial Space Boom overnight. Companies like SpaceX with its Starlink Constellation, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, and other Commercial Operators would suffer catastrophic Losses. The Search Results note that Venture Capital Valuations often assume Decades of Operation in an accessible Orbital Environment — an Assumption that would be invalidated by a Kessler Event.

Scientific Setback

Scientific Research would be set back Decades. The Loss of LEO Satellites would cripple Astronomy, other Science Missions. The Debris Clouds would create Observational Interference, making it difficult to conduct Space-based Astronomy. It’s going to be much harder in the Future to operate in Space. There’ll be a lot more Risks of losing Satellites or losing a Mission.

National Security Vulnerabilities

National Security Implications are profound. Militaries worldwide rely on LEO Satellites for Reconnaissance, Communications, and Surveillance. The Destruction of these Assets would create significant Security Gaps, potentially escalating Tensions between Nations. Communist China has previously destroyed Satellites in Tests, creating more than a thousand Pieces of Debris, and suggest that Authoritarian Regimes might view creating a Debris Field as a Way to control Information Flows.

Long-Term Consequences

The long-term Consequences are perhaps most concerning. According to one Analysis, in a severe Kessler Cascade Scenario, LEO becomes unusable for 50 Years. The Debris generated by one Collision can take Centuries to Deorbit naturally, meaning the Effects would persist long beyond our Lifetimes. Unlike most Portfolio Risks, this one does not reset. Debris accumulates. The Math only moves in one Direction.

Inadequate International Cooperation

International Cooperation would be essential to address the Aftermath, but current Frameworks are inadequate. There are no International Space Laws to clean up Debris in LEO. While Technologies like Space-based Lasers, Robotic Spacecraft, Nets, and Harpoons are being developed for Debris Removal, these Solutions remain in early Stages and would be overwhelmed by the Scale of Debris created by multiple Satellite Destructions.

Human Cost and Aspirations

The Human Cost cannot be overlooked. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station would face immediate Peril, potentially requiring Emergency Evacuation. The psychological Impact of witnessing the Degradation of our Orbital Environment would be profound, representing a significant Setback for Humanity’s Aspirations in Space.

Summary: Generational Impact

In Summary, Iran’s Destruction of Satellites in LEO would trigger an immediate Cascade of Collisions that would render LEO unusable for Decades, disrupt Global Communications and Navigation, devastate the Commercial Space Industry, set back Scientific Research, create National Security Vulnerabilities, and represent an irreversible Loss of our shared Orbital Environment. The Consequences would be catastrophic, far-reaching, and long-lasting, fundamentally altering Humanity’s Relationship with Space for Generations to come.

Let us hope and pray that President Trump, Bibi Netanyahu and the Persian People in Iran will eradicate the Mullahs and IRGC completely, before they light up our Skies with their Terrorist, Space Jihad Plans!

Source: Armin Navabi, Goldie Ghamari